Elderlies Taking Over the Market

Eugene Park 2024-02-05 PM 08:44 Views

A trader is checking stock prices at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the 22nd of last month. New York, USA/AFP Yonhap News

In the United States, concerns are growing about the impact of aging on the market. There is even talk that the elderly could pose the greatest risk to the stock market. However, as seen in the case of Warren Buffett, the ‘Oracle of Omaha,’ it is argued that finding solutions is more critical than merely viewing such situations negatively.

According to a recent analysis by U.S. investment media Investor’s Business Daily, among the CEOs of 11 S&P 500 companies, including Warren Buffett (93) of Berkshire Hathaway, Ellen Gordon (91) of Tootsie Roll, and Roger Penske (86) of Penske Automotive, are older than President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

The stock prices of the companies they lead have underperformed on average compared to the overall S&P 500 stocks. While the former has risen by an average of 51.8% over the past five years, the latter has increased by 82%. The debate surrounding senior leadership, represented by wisdom and experience, is not a recent phenomenon in the United States, but it has regained momentum as differences in stock prices have emerged.

The problem of aging is not only evident in management. The risk of elderly investors in the stock market is also increasing. According to Rosenberg Research, 80% of the stocks owned by Americans are held by those who are retired or nearing retirement, aged 55 and above. Their share, which was below 60% in the 1990s, has been steadily increasing since. The issue is that their investment funds, being retirement funds, could react more sensitively to market conditions.

David Rosenberg, an economist at Rosenberg, analyzed, “Retirees do not have the luxury of buying and holding stocks in a market downturn,” and “If a recession materializes, it will demographically trigger stock sales, and the market will be caught in a more powerful whirlwind.”

Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, is speaking at the annual shareholders’ meeting held in Omaha, Nebraska, USA, on May 5, 2019 (local time). Omaha, USA/AP Yonhap News

However, there are exceptions to such concerns. To start with, Berkshire Hathaway, led by Buffett, has shown much better stock performance than the previously mentioned companies with older CEOs. Berkshire’s stock price has risen by 85% over the past five years, higher than the rise in the S&P 500 index.

The timing when Buffett began to accumulate massive assets is also interesting. According to investment media Benzinga, 99% of his current net assets were accumulated after he turned 50. He was 56 when he earned the title of billionaire. At an age when others might be considered a ticking time bomb in the market, he became a market-leading investor.

Benzinga noted, “Buffett achieved his goal through patience and a deep understanding of the power of compound interest,” and “His success story is evidence of the principle that time is a more important factor than short-term gains or intelligence in accumulating substantial wealth.”

There is also positive feedback that if seniors’ consumption can be stimulated, it could present new opportunities for the market. According to a consumer spending survey by the U.S. Department of Labor last September, the spending share of Americans aged 65 and above reached 22% in 2022, the highest since the survey began in 1972. They stood at the center of the U.S. economic recovery amid the Federal Reserve System (Fed)’s continuous base interest rate hikes.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) explained, “Seniors with money to spend are becoming the secret weapon of the U.S. economy,” and “They are less sensitive to interest rates because they have less need to borrow money to buy homes and face less risk of layoffs compared to other consumers.”