High Chance of North Korea Military Provocations in Early 2024

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) of South Korea has warned of a high possibility that North Korea may carry out military provocations early next year.

The NIS anticipates that the military provocations could occur before the general elections in April of next year.

On the 28th, the NIS announced that there is a high possibility that North Korea may carry out military provocations early next year ahead of major political schedules such as the South Korean general elections in April.

According to a Yonhap News report, the NIS analyzed this based on North Korea’s history of military provocations before the 20th and 21st general elections, the reinstatement of key figures involved in major provocations against the South in the past, and recent threats against South Korea.

Concerning this, the NIS stated “Considering North Korea’s past behaviors and recent levels of threatening remarks against South Korea, we anticipate provocations from North Korea early next year. We are ensuring there are no gaps in our early warning and preparedness posture together with relevant departments.”

The NIS cited as evidence the fact that North Korea carried out a series of provocations including a nuclear test (1·6), drone intrusion (1·13), Taepodong missile launch (2·7), and GPS jamming (3·31) ahead of the 20th general elections in 2016.

The NIS also mentioned that North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile, a tactical weapon against South Korea four times in a row a month before the 21st general elections held in April 2020.

The NIS also noted that North Korea brought back Kim Yong Chol who led the Cheonan ship and Yeonpyeong Island provocations as an adviser to the United Front Department in June and Lee Yong Gil and Park Jung Chon who commanded the DMZ landmine provocation as the Chief of the General Staff and the Director of the Military Operations Bureau respectively in August.

Kim Yong Chol, Lee Yong Gil, and Park Jung Chon are known as the so-called ‘North Korean Provocation Trio’.

Recently, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced a ‘directive conclusion on the direction of struggle for next year’ at a meeting. He ordered to further accelerate the completion of war preparations in the military, defense industry, nuclear weapons, and civil defense sectors.

By. Ki Young Son