SNU Research Team Calls for 8,000 Won Cigarette Price to Achieve Health Goals

A recent study suggests that if cigarette prices are raised to 8,000 won (about $6.75) this year or increased by 10% annually, the smoking rate among adult men could be reduced to 25% by 2030.

A research team from Seoul National University’s Institute of Health and Environment and Graduate School of Public Health (Park Soo-jan, Kim Hana, Cho Sung-il) recently published a research report titled “Exploration of Strategy to Achieve the 2030 National Health Promotion Comprehensive Plan Male Smoking Rate Goal Using SimSmoke” in the Korean Journal of Smoking Cessation.

The research team said, “Based on the ‘SimSmoke’ model that analyzes the impact of smoking policies on smoking rates, we have proposed a direction for tobacco regulation policies to achieve the 2030 goal. We tried to suggest specific strategies by applying various cigarette price increase scenarios,” explaining the study’s intention.

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) announced in the 2021 National Health and Nutrition Survey that the smoking rate among adult men was 31.3% that year.

At that time, the government announced the 5th National Health Promotion Comprehensive Plan, which included policies such as raising cigarette prices, banning the display and advertising of cigarettes at retail stores, expanding warning images on cigarette packs, introducing standard cigarette packs without advertisements, and prohibit smoking in all indoor buildings, to reduce the adult male smoking rate to 25% by 2030.

However, according to the research team’s prediction of future smoking rates, if the government maintains its current policy level, the smoking rate in 2030 will be 32.24%.

If the KDCA strengthens non-price policies, excluding the increase in cigarette prices among the policies it has previously proposed, the smoking rate in 2030 will be reduced to 27.1%.

The research team predicted that if non-price policies are strengthened and cigarette prices are raised to 8,000 won this year, the smoking rate in 2030 will drop to 24.5%. Alternatively, if cigarette prices are raised by 10% annually from this year, it will be 24.7%.

The research team explained, “The World Health Organization (WHO) describes price policy as the most effective single policy to encourage smoking cessation and prevent the start of smoking among minors. Although there are concerns about illegal trade and excessive spending, it is known to increase the smoking cessation rate among low-income groups and contribute to improving health equity.”