Trump to Loose and Musk’s X Goes Bankrupt in 2024, According to FT’s Predictions
Predictions have emerged that Donald Trump will lose to Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential election in November this year.
Another eye-catching prediction is that Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) will go bankrupt, and even if Taiwan’s president changes, China will not invade Taiwan.
In welcoming the New Year of 2024, the UK’s Financial Times (FT) has released these predictions.
Each year, FT columnists unveil their forecasts for 20 significant global issues, and this year was no exception. Here is a summary of FT’s predictions for this year. FT self-evaluates that they got all but 3 of their 20 predictions right last year.
Trump to Lose to Biden
FT predicts Biden will return to the presidency after a nail-biting contest against Trump in this year’s U.S. presidential election. Voters are anticipated to favor Biden not out of affinity for him but due to their aversion to Trump.
Low Probability of Full-Scale War in the Middle East
FT sees a low likelihood that the war between Israel and Hamas will escalate into a full-scale Middle East war. While clashes between the Iranian-backed armed group Hezbollah and the Israeli military are intensifying, both the U.S., which supports Israel and Iran do not want this regional conflict to escalate further.
U.S. Soft Landing Will Be Short-Lived, Followed by Pain
Will the U.S. achieve a soft landing? FT’s analysis indicates that consumer spending continues to show strength and wage increases are being kept in check. This suggests the possibility of a soft landing lasting a few months, though there’s uncertainty about its continuation into 2024. However, the reduction in government fiscal support following the expiration of subsidies provided to households during the Covid era, coupled with the rise in bankruptcies due to high interest rates, mounting concerns about U.S. debt, and a shrinking global trade landscape due to geopolitical tensions, all present potential challenges that could eventually impact the U.S. economy.
China’s Economic Growth Rate Will Easily Exceed 4%
So what will happen to China’s economy, the world’s second-largest after the U.S.? FT sees a low possibility that China’s economic growth rate will fall below 3%. Although signs of a real estate market crash, contributing to one-third of the GDP, are showing, many local governments are struggling with debt, and Chinese consumers’ spending has decreased. FT predicts that China’s GDP growth rate will easily exceed 4% this year. FT anticipates that the effects of debt relief financial packages, fiscal stimulus measures, and advancements in high technology will positively influence the growth rate.
No Chinese Attack on Taiwan, Even with a Change of President
Will China invade Taiwan if there is a change of president in Taiwan’s presidential election on January 13? FT doesn’t think so. Current polls show that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Lai Ching-te, is slightly ahead of the main opposition Kuomintang candidate, Hou Yu-ih. Even if Lai Ching-te is elected, as long as he continues to uphold the cautious approach towards China, similar to the current President Tsai Ing-wen’s stance, it is less likely that China will find a pretext for attacking Taiwan.
Japan Will Not Raise Interest Rates Above 0%
Will Japan abandon its zero-interest-rate policy? Despite market expectations that interest rates will increase several more times even if the Bank of Japan finally abandons its yield curve control and negative interest rate policy, FT predicts that Japan will not raise interest rates above 0.
Investors Will Return to Bonds, a Safe Asset
FT predicts that investors will return to bonds. Even though there were predictions that investors would flock to bonds if the stock market fell in 2023, this did not happen. However, FT predicts that this year will be different. As the lagged effect of interest rate hikes begins, and a form of economic slowdown approaches the U.S. economy, investors may consider bonds a safer investment.
Elon Musk’s X Will Go Bankrupt
FT predicts the bankruptcy of X. The possibility of bankruptcy has increased as X’s advertising has dramatically decreased, and attempts to create new sources of revenue have failed. FT predicts that Musk’s fight to secure management rights in a bankrupt X will be a sequel to the dramatic acquisition of Twitter.
In addition, FT predicted that female pop stars generally wouldn’t earn as much as their male counterparts on concert tours this year, even though Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour broke records last year by earning over $1 billion for the first time and Beyoncé’s Renaissance Tour ranked second in earnings last year with $580 million.
FT’s prediction includes the growth of Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, known for its groundbreaking obesity treatment, as it ascends to become the most valuable company in Europe in the current year. The U.S. and European IPO markets, which have been sluggish for two years due to high interest rates, will revive due to stock market booms and expectations of interest rate cuts. It has also been predicted that Sam Altman, who was briefly exited from OpenAI last year before returning, will not face another ousting.
Furthermore, it made predictions about climate change, predicting that this year will surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record.
FT Got 17 Out of 20 Predictions Right in 2023…85% Accuracy
FT self-rated that they got a high hit rate by only getting 3 out of 20 predictions wrong for 2023.
In other words, they predicted that the S&P500, the U.S. stock market benchmark index, would fall by more than 10%, but in reality, it surged by more than 20%. They predicted Europe would experience a cold winter blackout, but that didn’t happen. They also predicted that African countries would fall into default one after another, but although Ethiopia declared default on December 25, this prediction was not entirely accurate. However, they got all the other predictions right.
In other words, FT’s predictions that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine would persist, the Federal Reserve would not reduce interest rates, President Biden would seek re-election, Trump would face indictment, China would refrain from invading Taiwan, and Japan would maintain its yield curve control policy have all proven to be accurate.
The coming year will reveal how many of the 20 predictions for 2024, as presented by FT, will materialize.
By. Jin Won Lee